The US Dollar (USD) opened this week on a relatively calm note, with minimal price fluctuations against major currencies. Traders appear to be taking a cautious approach, focusing on upcoming economic indicators rather than recent market events.
All eyes are on Wednesday’s release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which is expected to significantly influence the dollar’s trajectory. Additionally, Thursday’s US Retail Sales data will provide further insights into the health of the US economy.
Yuan Under Pressure Amid Potential Fed Rate Cuts
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has warned of potential Yuan devaluation if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) implements substantial interest rate cuts. The Chinese central bank has indicated its intention to maintain Yuan stability against the USD, suggesting potential intervention to counter downward pressure.
US Treasury Auctions and Budget Deficit
The US Treasury will auction 3-month and 6-month bills today, with investors likely to monitor the results closely given recent yield fluctuations. Meanwhile, the US Monthly Budget Statement for July, expected to show a deficit of $254.3 billion, could also impact market sentiment.
Equity Markets Open Cautiously
Global equity markets have displayed a subdued start to the week, with most major indices trading slightly higher. Investor sentiment remains cautious as market participants await key economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations
The CME FedWatch Tool currently implies a 53.5% probability of a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September, with a 46.5% chance of a 50 bps reduction. Expectations for subsequent rate cuts in November and December are also increasing.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The US 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading at 3.93% after briefly surpassing the 4.00% level last week. Bond market volatility remains a concern, with investors closely monitoring price movements.
US Dollar Index Technical Outlook
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near a crucial support level, with its direction likely determined by the upcoming CPI report. A break above 103.18 could signal a resumption of the uptrend, with potential targets at 104.00 and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Conversely, a decline below 102.35 could intensify downward pressure, with support levels at 102.00 and 101.90.