USD/CAD briefly tested a fresh high for the week, but the pair continues to churn in near-term consolidation levels as markets buckle down for the latest meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Market momentum remains thin with US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures due on Thursday, and the trading week will wrap up with the Fed’s latest Monetary Policy Report on Friday. Canada saw its New Housing Price Index decline in January with the annualized figure softening at a slower rate than previous. Canadian Retail Sales are due on Thursday but are likely to be engulfed by the US PMI prints.
USD/CAD found a little extra room on the high side early Wednesday, touching a new high for the trading week, but the pair remains firmly embedded in near-term technical congestion. The USD/CAD is sticking close to the 1.3500 handle as markets await a firm push in either direction. The pair finally finished closing last week’s Fair Value Gap (FVG) at 1.3530. The USD/CAD sees a heavy support zone between 1.3480 and 1.3470, just above last week’s Order Block (OB) near 1.3460. Technicals favor a continued bullish break of character, but only if the pair is able to build enough momentum to return to last week’s peak bids near 1.3585. Daily candles see the USD/CAD continues to struggle near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3478, but a pattern of higher lows supports a thin push into the bullish side. The USD/CAD is up 2.5% from the last swing low into the 1.3200 handle but still has a ways to go on the high side, still down nearly 3% from last November’s peak near 1.3900.